The new energy vehicle market drive will become the main force
From the decline in sales at the beginning of the year to the rapid increase in the market in the second half of the year, in 2020, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles have returned to positive year-on-year growth.
On January 11, the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Conference (hereinafter referred to as the “Passenger Federation”) announced the latest production and sales data. In 2020, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles will be 1.134 million and 1.17 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. % and 12%.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Federation, told the Securities Times reporter that the recovery of the new energy vehicle market is closely related to various support policies issued by the state. At the same time, the recovery of the domestic economy has brought about the recovery of consumer confidence, which has also further released the new growth momentum of the new energy vehicle market.
In fact, after various support and stimulus policies “boots” one by one, the new energy vehicle sector has also ushered in a general rise, and more and more investors are rushing to seize the new energy vehicle track. Alibaba, Baidu and other Internet Giant companies have entered the game to build cars, adding another “fire” to the warming of the entire industry.
When the heroes are competing, will the new energy vehicle market usher in a new round of reshuffle? How is the market going in 2021? Will the new energy vehicle sector continue its hot market? This series of issues deserves attention.
Accumulate against impact
“In the second half of 2020, the sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly, mainly due to several factors, including the long-term support of national policies, the improvement of related infrastructure, the gradual completion of the industrial chain, and the improvement of consumer acceptance. “Wang Binggang, the leader of the national new energy vehicle innovation project expert group, told the Securities Times reporter that the reason why the new energy vehicle market can recover quickly under the impact of the epidemic is the result of the long-term efforts of the entire industry.
According to the latest data released by the Passenger Federation, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2020 will be 1.134 million and 1.17 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 26.8% and 12%. In December, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 210,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 53.6%.
According to Cui Dongshu’s analysis, the pure electric vehicle market showed strong growth in both high and low levels in December. Among them, the sales volume of A00-class products was 57,000 units, accounting for 32% of the pure electric vehicle market share; while the A-class products accounted for 32% of the pure electric vehicle market share. 28%. In the high-end new energy vehicle market, Tesla continued to maintain a strong momentum, with sales reaching 22,800 units in December.
“The new energy vehicle market in the future will take on a dumbbell shape, and high-end models and low-end small cars will occupy more market share.” A securities analyst told the Securities Times reporter that in 2020, this trend has been fully reflected.
A few days ago, SAIC-GM-Wuling announced the sales of Wuling Hongguang MINI EV. In December 2020, the monthly sales of this pure electric vehicle positioned at the A00 level reached 35,388, successfully surpassing Tesla and topping the sales list of domestic new energy vehicles. . Since its launch in July last year, the cumulative sales volume of Wuling Hongguang MINI EV in 2020 has exceeded 127,600 units, and the growth rate has amazed the entire industry.
Benefiting from the soaring sales of Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, the stock price of parts supplier Wuling Motors (00305.HK) has soared, with a maximum increase of more than ten times. According to Wind statistics, at the beginning of 2020, the market value of Wuling Motors was only 605 million Hong Kong dollars, and by the end of the year, this value had reached 6.949 billion Hong Kong dollars.
Wang Binggang told the Securities Times reporter that the cost of small electric vehicles is low, the cost performance is outstanding, and the future market space is very large.
In addition to the more eye-catching performance of small cars, new car companies are also making a collective effort in 2020. According to public data, in 2020, NIO’s cumulative sales volume was 43,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 121%; Li Auto’s cumulative sales volume was 33,400 units; Xiaopeng Motors’ cumulative delivery volume was 27,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 112%.
At the same time as the sales growth, the “three brothers” of car-making have also become the popular “fried chickens” in the new energy vehicle market in 2020. Wind data shows that the stock prices of NIO, Xpeng and Li Auto have risen by more than two months respectively in the past two months. 136.60%, 101.18%, 57.80%.
Tesla, which has successfully achieved localization, also delivered a sales volume that exceeded expectations in 2020. The data shows that Tesla’s total global sales in 2020 will be 499,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 36%. Among them, the Model 3 produced by the Shanghai factory, It is an important driving force for Tesla’s sales growth in 2020.
Pan Helin, Executive Dean and Professor of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, told the Securities Times reporter that the capital market has a strong leading orientation, and Tesla’s market value has grown by nearly 7 times during the year. The entire new energy vehicle sector, including enterprises, has brought a positive impact. At the same time, the release of consumption momentum has also made investors more optimistic about the new energy industry.
Recently, the Qichacha Big Data Research Institute released the “New Energy Vehicle Investment and Financing Data Report in the Past Ten Years”. The report shows that in 2020, the total financing amount of my country’s new energy vehicle industry exceeded 100 billion yuan for the first time, a year-on-year increase of 159.4%.
Wang Binggang believes that the explosion of the new energy vehicle market in 2020 is not caused overnight, but the result of long-term accumulation and precipitation of the entire industry.
Market drivers are growing
In February 2020, under the heavy impact of the epidemic, the sales of new energy vehicles once fell by more than 80%, but after less than a year of recovery, the sales of new energy vehicles returned to positive and achieved growth that exceeded industry expectations.
Many industry insiders have analyzed that the “hand of policy” boost has played a crucial role. In April 2020, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the “Notice on Improving Financial Subsidy Policies for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles”, extending the subsidy period to the end of 2022 and slowing down the intensity and pace of subsidies. Subsequently, a series of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption were introduced from the central to local governments, all of which contributed to the rapid warming of the new energy vehicle market.
In July 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the “Notice on Launching New Energy Vehicles to the Countryside Activities” to carry out new energy vehicles in Qingdao, Shandong, Nanjing, Haikou, Hainan, Chengdu, Sichuan and Kunming, Yunnan. The activities of going to the countryside have promoted the explosion of the small electric vehicle market.
The reporter learned that Wuling Hongguang MINI EV has benefited a lot from this round of activities. It only took half a year to sell more than 120,000 vehicles, and it surpassed Tesla several times to become the monthly sales champion.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as “CAAM”) analyzed that the growth in sales of small electric vehicles reflects the transformation of the driving force of the new energy vehicle market. In 2020, the transformation of new energy vehicles from policy-driven to market-driven has achieved remarkable results and made breakthroughs in the private market.
The research report of Evergrande Research Institute pointed out that in 2020, the proportion of private consumption in the new energy vehicle market will begin to increase. Among them, the private consumption of new energy passenger vehicles accounted for 71.7% in the first half of the year, an increase of 18.9 percentage points compared with 2019. The increase in the proportion of private consumption indicates that the new energy vehicle industry is moving from rapid development to high-quality development.
The reporter noticed that in the process of market driving force transformation, those new energy vehicle companies that once relied too much on the public vehicle market are encountering severe challenges. According to the latest production and sales report disclosed by BAIC Blue Valley (600733), in 2020, the company’s subsidiary, BAIC New Energy, achieved a cumulative sales volume of 25,900 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 82.79%.
Industry insiders judge that under the circumstance that the market driving force is becoming more and more obvious, new energy vehicle enterprises are bound to improve their core competitiveness in order to reduce their reliance on subsidies and other support policies.
At the end of 2020, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the “Notice on Further Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles”, requiring that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2021 be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2020. In order to slow down the subsidy decline and keep the technical indicators threshold stable, the current technical indicator system framework and threshold requirements for purchase subsidies will remain unchanged in 2021.
According to an analysis by Minsheng Securities, the downhill policy will help promote the transformation and development of the industry from subsidy-driven to market-driven. In this process, high-quality OEMs are expected to gain market recognition and further increase their market share by virtue of their long-term accumulation of production capacity advantages, technical hard power, and product price competitiveness.
Sales are expected to maintain rapid growth
2021 has just started, and the news of Tesla Model Y entering the market at a “low price” has detonated the automotive circle. At the same time, the official release of NIO’s smart electric car ET7 and 150kWh solid-state battery has also attracted widespread attention in the market.
Cui Dongshu told the Securities Times reporter that the actions of these two companies have injected vitality into the new energy vehicle market in 2021, and also revealed the market space and potential.
As companies increase their horsepower to seize the market share of new energy vehicles, more and more new forces have targeted this track. On January 11, Baidu announced that it has officially established a smart car company to enter the automotive industry as a vehicle manufacturer. At the same time, Zhejiang Geely Holding Group will become a strategic partner of the new company.
In fact, since 2020, the combination of traditional car companies + Internet giants has quietly emerged. First, Changan, Ningde Times, and Huawei have jointly created high-end smart car brands. Electric car smart car. Recently, another market news came out that Apple is expected to jointly build a car with Hyundai Motor.
Industry insiders told the Securities Times reporter that Internet giants have entered the market to build cars, reflecting the popularity and gravity of the new energy vehicle market. These companies have certain advantages in the field of intelligent design and autonomous driving, while traditional car companies have strong experience in car manufacturing and industry chain, and they also understand consumers better. The optimization of resources can also further promote the development of the new energy vehicle industry.
Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, judged that the strategic direction of most new energy vehicle companies is very clear at present, either taking the high-end route or focusing on low-end vehicles. In his view, through the collective efforts of these two markets, the new energy vehicle market is expected to usher in higher growth in 2021, and sales growth is expected to reach more than 40%, reaching 1.8 million vehicles.
Regarding the market forecast in 2021, Wang Binggang is also optimistic. He told the Securities Times reporter that in the context of increasingly perfect industrial facilities, there will be more demand for the new energy vehicle market in 2021, and sales are expected to show rapid growth. state.
Some industry insiders also reminded reporters that the layout of multinational companies in China’s new energy vehicle market in 2020 cannot be ignored. In May last year, Volkswagen acquired a 50% stake in JAC and became the largest shareholder of Guoxuan Hi-Tech. In July, Daimler announced to establish a far-reaching strategic partnership with Funeng Technology, and at the same time invested in Funeng Technology, holding about 3% of the shares. In December, the pure electric vehicles of Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi and several major luxury car companies have been fully mass-produced.
The above-mentioned people said that the efforts of foreign brands to a certain extent reflect that under the impact of the epidemic, the Chinese market has gradually become an important “safe haven” for multinational car companies, especially in the field of new energy vehicles. And their arrival will further inject vitality into the domestic new energy vehicle market.