2020 global semiconductor equipment forecast ranking released: ASML will be defeated by applied materials and lose the top position

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Applied Materials has dominated the global semiconductor equipment market since 1990, but in 2019 ASML led the global wafer front-end market with shipments of its expensive EUV lithography equipment, beating out applications Materials companies top the 2019 list. But ASML had a poor first quarter of 2020, with quarterly revenue down 31% year over year, largely due to the company’s loss of some of its market share in 2020 to Applied Materials. (Note: ASML has other products in addition to lithography machines, such as metrology and inspection products that will compete with Applied Materials) It is speculated that Applied Materials will regain the top position in semiconductor equipment from ASML in 2020.

The chart below shows the individual market shares of the top five individual device companies. Applied Materials’ market share increased from 15.9% in 2019 to 16.4% in 2020. ASML had a 16.9% share in 2019 and will drop to a 15.4% share in 2020.

 Applied Materials competes directly with several companies:

Metrology/Inspection Field: ASML, KLA

Deposition and Etch: Lam, Tokyo Electron, etc.

Lam’s market share will increase from 10.6% in 2019 to 10.8% in 2020 due to the company’s high market share in memory, especially NAND, which is affected by low ASP and high inventory backlog. Tokyo Electron’s market share will increase from 11.7% in 2019 to 12.3% in 2020 due to the company’s dominance in photoresist processing and dielectric etching systems.

KLA’s market share will grow from 5.4% in 2019 to 6.2% in 2020. In semiconductor manufacturing, metrology/inspection equipment is key to ensuring high yields, especially as new technology nodes are approaching. Metrology systems are used to measure parameters such as film thickness or line width, and inspection systems are used to detect defects and monitor production anomalies.

Based on the overall WFE market of US$70 billion in 2020, the top five companies will increase their market share in 2020, while the remaining smaller players’ overall market share will decline from 39.6% in 2019 to 2020 38.8% of the year.

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